4/24/2001

Well, the 2001 NFL draft has come and gone.

Seahawk Boy predicted 26 of the 31 players drafted in the first round accurately, but was only able to match five with the teams that actually chose them. The situation was very fluid right up until the last moment, with several trades taking place during the first round.

The general consensus is that the Seahawks had the best draft of any of the 31 NFL teams. They took players based on value, rather than need, and this approach won them almost universal praise for the players they got. 

On paper, the Seahawks look to be one of the most -- if not the most -- improved teams in the NFL. It's important to remember however that last year the same thing was said about the Washington Redskins, and in 1999 it was the Arizona Cardinals taking "Most Improved" draft day honors. Both teams failed to make the playoffs.

As you might expect, SHB has a slightly different take on Mike Holmgren's performance in this crucial draft for the Seahawks. With a ton of talent at key positions of need for the team, Holmgren made some good moves but failed to take advantage of several opportunities to upgrade in need areas. As a result, our perspective is that the draft was something of mixed bag at best. Yes, the Seahawks got "value" players, players who almost certainly can play well in the NFL, but they passed on a number of excellent players to take them. They completely failed to address depth on the defensive line, and added players who will make little difference in the won-lost column this year.

Round by Round Review

Let's start in round one. With two picks, #7 and #17, the Seahawks were well positioned to add to their success in free agency. To his credit, Holmgren came into the draft planning to select DT Richard Seymour of Georgia. This would have been a good selection, as he could have joined John Randle and Chad Eaton in a three man rotation at DT and even played some end. The Patriots spoiled the plan by taking Seymour right in front of Seattle at #6, forcing Holmgren to go to his back-up plan. Again, to his credit, he had one, and promptly traded down with San Francisco at #9 to recoup a third round pick after giving up Seattle's in the Matt Hasselbeck trade. With both Michigan's David Terrell and NC State's Koren Robinson still on the board, Holmgren was assured of getting one of the top, if not the top, receivers in the draft. But, make no mistake, when Holmgren made the trade it never occurred to him that the Bears would take Terrell at #8. Robinson, with his flashy jewelry and run-ins with his college coaches, is not at all Holmgren's type of player. Terrell, who played through a stress fracture last season, is the tough kind of player Holmgren covets. Robinson was a panic choice after the Bears surprised him. Holmgren tried to claim that the coaches and scouts were pretty much evenly divided on the two players, but that is on football terms. When it comes to character and attitude, there was no comparison between the two. 

This was a case where Holmgren failed to appreciate the difference between drafting for need and reaching for need. Even though they were taken six picks apart, the only real difference between Damione Lewis and Richard Seymour was about 20 pounds of bulk. Lewis made this up with superior quickness and work ethic, and we think he would have been a much better choice at #9 than Robinson, since the Seahawks could have had UCLA's Freddie Mitchell at #17 to fill their need at WR. Instead, Holmgren ended up with a player he can't possibly be looking forward to coaching. Robinson is a superb physical talent, but whether he achieves the greatness his skills promise is dependant on his willingness to work hard, get signed on time and be coached. And Holmgren's reputation as a talent evaluator will be largely dependant on that same unstable personality. It's hard to see Holmgren and Robinson co-existing well together, especially if Robinson tries to get a four year contract or one with voidable years, which is exactly the kind of jerky thing a guy like him would do. He is a true gamble on greatness, and despite his physical talents, a reach, especially on a character basis.

At #17, the Seahawks grabbed Michigan guard Steve Hutchinson. Hutchinson is versatile OL, able to play guard, center, and even RT in the right system. Hutchinson was the #1 OG in the draft, and a top ten player on most boards. No question, Hutch will start and probably play LG for the Hawks for years to come, and at a far lower cap number then it would have taken to re-sign Pete Kendall. The reason he slid to the Seahawks at #17 is the relative lack of importance of offensive guards in football terms. It's true there are no unimportant positions on the football field, but OG is by far the least important of the non-specialty positions. If OG's were valuable, Hutchinson would have been off the board probably before the Seahawks picked at #7, much less #17.

Our problem with the pick is not that Hutchinson is not a good player -- he unquestionably is -- but rather that there were nearly equally promising players available with this pick, and at positions the Seahawks needed help. It's not that depth on the OL was not an issue for the Seahawks. SHB's own "dream draft" had them taking no less than three OL's in the draft's seven rounds. But after getting Robinson at WR, the Seahawks #1 need was to find a starter opposite Shawn Springs at CB. Any of the DL's would have been a reach at that point. Holmgren could have chosen any of the defensive backs available in the draft. None had been taken at that point. With Nate Clements, Will Allen and Willie Middlebrooks available, Holmgren could have had the #1 CB in the entire draft. Even though Hutchinson had a higher grade than any of those players, the Seahawks had no gaping hole at Guard and any one of the three CB's could have been instant starters at a critical position. Clements, even though he had less ability, would have made a bigger impact than Hutchinson because he plays an important position and the Seahawks have a need at CB. For that matter, Reggie Tongue is not exactly an impact player at SS, and Adam Archuleta would have been a major upgrade over him, again at a more important position than OG.

To us, it seems that Holmgren played the first round not-to-lose, rather than to win. His choice of Hutchinson seems like a "sure thing" counter weight to the riskier selection of Robinson at #9. He also evidently made the judgment that there would be a reasonably comparable CB to any of the three we mentioned available at #40 in the 2nd round, and who are we to argue with that? He may be right in the end.

All in all, we would have spent the picks on Damione Lewis at #9, and Freddie Mitchell at #17. It will be interesting to see if our choices would have been any better.

Second Round 

At #40, the 9th pick in the second round, Holmgren addressed his need at CB by selecting Mississippi's Ken Lucas. Lucas was among the top graded group of CB's in the draft, and could have gone in the first round depending on preferences. Our only comment on Lucas is that Fred Smoot might have been a better pure cover corner, but he came with a little baggage. Still, such baggage is less of a risk with a second round pick than it is with a top ten first rounder. Hopefully Lucas will step in and do the job that Ike Charlton was unable to do last year and provide a solid pairing with Springs. There were three DL's that graded out at that pick, Shaun Rogers, Kris Jenkins or Willie Howard, but none of those was compelling enough to pass on a solid CB, especially considering the re-injury to back-up CB Fred Vinson. We probably would have made the same, or a similar, pick.

Third Round

This is where we start to have real problems with Holmgren's choices. Heath Evans was the #1 FB on most teams draft boards, as he was on SHB's (we had him going as the first FB taken, with the first pick in round 3). By getting him with the 20th pick the round, the Seahawks obtained a true "value" pick, in pure talent terms. Evans may have the ability to be a feature back in some systems, and could even end  up being a William Floyd type for the Seahawks.

The problem here once again is that the reason such a fine athlete dropped to the Seahawks is that there is no shortage of decent fullbacks in the NFL. Beyond that, the Seahawks had no real need at the position, especially not at the cost of first day pick (we advocated taking a young FB, but not until late on the second day). A young FB would be nice to have coming up because of Mack Strong's durability problems and Reggie Brown's inconsistency, but it was hardly a crying need. Add to that the fact that like OG, FB is in serious competition to be the least important player on the field.

Beyond the fact that Holmgren spent this high pick on player he didn't need at a position that generally has little impact, he passed on a couple of quality players at positions that are far more important in football terms and in which the Seahawks had definite needs. Even more than DT, DE was probably the biggest need area for the Seahawks after the CB and WR spots had been addressed. Behind starters John Randle, Chad Eaton, Michael Sinclair and Lamar King, the depth at DL is paper thin. The DT spot is backed only by former Pittsburgh washout Jeremey Saat, untested second year man John Hilliard, and 1999 4th round disappointment Antonio Cochran. None of those players has shown that he is a starting quality NFL player. The situation at DE is even worse, with non-entities Rahman Streater, Tim Watson and Cedric Woodard joined by aging journeyman Matt Labounty. When this group is combined with fading starter Michael Sinclair's declining production, it looks like the weakest unit on the roster.

He could have addressed it with this pick. When the Seahawks took Evans, they passed on at least three solid prospects at DE, Oregon State's DeLawrence Grant, Minnesota's Karon Riley, and Southern Mississippi's Cedric Scott. Any or all of them could have helped the Seahawks immediately, but passing on the productive, hard working Grant was especially galling. Grant played terrific against top competition in the Pac-10, and won all-conference honors. He was rated as high as a second round pick by some teams and was definitely worthy of the draft's 82nd pick. He could have given the Hawks a young, quality up-and-comer at DE, and made a big difference because of King's ability to move inside to DT if Randle or Eaton were to be injured. Instead, we have third FB who is a better ball carrier than blocker despite the fact that there already aren't enough carries to go around in the Seahawks crowded backfield. 

Bottom line, this was a blown pick. It should have been Grant.

Fourth Round

Despite our problems with Holmgren's performance on day one, we were more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt if he redeemed himself on day two. With three picks in the fourth round and a number of quality DL's still on the board, the Seahawks were in a position to do just that.

Once again we were disappointed to see two terrific fourth round prospects, Kenyatta Jones of South Florida and Karon Riley, go before the Seahawks selected with the 9th pick in the round. Despite the fact that Cedric Scott (a DE with even more upside that Grant) was still available, Holmgren chose instead to go with Fresno State OLB Orlando Huff. Huff had spectacular numbers in his senior season and has a great physique, but his success came mostly against lower level competition in the WAC. At least this choice was a defensive player. Depth at OLB is a concern for Seattle, and Huff may be able to fill a starters role in time. 

If Holmgren was enamored with Huff, we don't have a problem with that. The point is that he should have been teamed with Grant, Riley or Scott, rather than Evans at this point. The entire draft would have been stronger had he gone Grant-Huff, or Huff-Scott, or whichever combination he liked. The point is that there were quality DE's available in this third to fourth round area, and not taking one of them in favor of a FB, no matter how good he is, is a major mistake.

We could have even forgiven him that, had he made the right moves with his two 4th round compensatory picks. Picking at #127 (#32 in the round) Holmgren reached for TCU FS Curtis Fuller. Too small to play safety in the NFL and too slow to play corner, Fuller is purely a special teams player if he makes the team. This is more appropriately the kind of pick you make in the 6th or 7th round, rather than the fourth, and it is once again compounded by the presence of a quality prospect on the DL. Kansas State's huge, quick DT Mario Fatafeh is a much better player. He lacks football experience, but his work ethic is unquestioned and he got better every year in college.

If Holmgren was fixated on getting a safety, Washington's Hakim Akbar is much more physically gifted and has far more upside.

The other compensatory selection(#128), Floyd "Pork Chop" Womack, was a much better choice. The Seahawks need additional depth along the OL, and he has great size and a lot of athletic upside. 

Fifth Round

Because of their lack of depth at WR, the Seahawks came into the draft needing two. With his fifth round choice at #140 (ninth in the round) Holmgren filled this need by grabbing Eastern Kentucky's Alex Bannister. Bannister is a physically gifted player with great size and excellent speed. He works hard and seems to have the desire. Choosing him with this pick was a value choice, although if he had not already taken Fuller, we again would have favored Akbar with this pick.

Sixth Round

With the ninth pick in the round (#172) Holmgren again went into brain freeze and picked a player he didn't need and who had excessive baggage. Holmgren justified his selection of LSU QB Josh Booty by saying that he was rated as a third rounder on the Seahawks draft board. The truth is that the reason he dropped to the sixth round is because of questions about his character, consistency and coachability. Besides those issues, the last thing the Seahawks needed was another young QB. With Matt Hasselbeck, Damon Huard and Travis Brown having a combined five years of pro experience between them, the need is for an experienced veteran back-up to stabilize the unit. Add to that the fact that Booty might have slipped completely out of the draft due to his character concerns and this is abominably dumb selection.

Seventh Round

With their three choices in the 7th round (#'s 209, 222, & 237) the Seahawks selected three project players. CB Harold Blackmon was inconsistent at Northwestern, and will probably switch to safety in the NFL. He is purely a special teams pick. OT Dennis Norman is very athletic, but will probably not make the team and will get stolen off the practice squad before the Seahawks can develop him. DT Kris Kocurek has some upside, but nowhere near as much as the players Holmgren passed on in the early rounds and he's a case of too little, too late.

Summary

Despite our reservations about how he ran the first round, our real issues come mostly with rounds three through six. Holmgren, despite numerous opportunities, failed to address needs along the defensive line. The situation is made worse by the sluggishness with which the Seahawks have moved in the college free agent signing period. Florida State DE's Roland Seymour and David Warren are worth bringing to camp, as is UCLA's Kenyon Coleman and Minnesota's DT John Schlect. The players he got are unquestionably pretty good, and with the addition of Hutchinson and Evans, the Seahawks should have a very good running game. One injury to a starter on the DL, however, could spell disaster. 

All in all, it's tough to complain too much about the first three selections. Let's give Holmgren the benefit of the doubt on the first two rounds and examine what we would have done if we were running the Seahawks war room:

1.   Koren Robinson - WR - Boom or bust type.
1a. Steve Hutchinson - OG - He's already better than Pete Kendall, and much cheaper. Will help the OL a lot.
2. Ken Lucas - CB - Took guts to pass on Smoot. Hope he's worth it.
3. DeLawrence Grant - DE - a value player who fills a need.
4a. Orlando Huff - LB - If Holmgren likes him that much, he can keep him.
4b. Floyd Womack - OG/OT - Need depth on the OL.
4c. Mario Fatafeh - DT - Big, strong, quick and hard working. Better than any current Seahawks back-up at DT.
5. Hakim Akbar - S - Much better than Fuller.
6. Kevin Kasper - WR - Passing on Bannister is tough but Kasper will be a solid player in the league.
7a. Harold Blackmon - CB - Special teams player.
7b. Dennis Norman - OT - Project, but a good selection.
7c. Dustin Mclintock - FB - Pure blocking FB.

The biggest differences are that we pass on Evans in favor of Grant, Fuller in favor of Fatafeh, Bannister in favor of Akbar, Booty in favor of Kasper, and Kocurek in favor Mclintock. We'll see if our draft, or Holmgren's, turns out for the better. But remember, he's supposed to be smarter than we are; that's why he's making millions.

Outlook

A great deal of the evaluation of this draft will be based on how Holmgren fills his roster between now and training camp. If he can find some quality depth for the DL, then his passing over of so many quality DL prospects won't look so bad if there is an injury or two there. One player who springs to mind is former Ram D'Marco Farr. If he is healthy, he could rotate with Randle and Eaton and really help the interior DL depth. Another imperative is the much rumored signing of Jerry Rice. Rice would not only give the offense some much needed veteran depth, his example for young players like Robinson and Bannister is essential to have. The Seahawks must get him.

The key to this draft will be Robinson, no doubt. We'll find out very quickly if he's a wasted pick. If he holds out with a ton of selfish demands, like a four year deal or voidable years, the chances of him being an impact player will evaporate in a clash of ego's with Holmgren. If, however, he accepts a slotted deal by training camp and reports on time ready to learn, he could be a great player under the tutelage of Rice.

This draft is crucial to the Seahawks future because they are unlikely to have any cap room for a few years. LT Walter Jones, CB Shawn Springs, LB Chad Brown, and RB Rickey Watters will all be free agents after the season. In addition, LB Anthony Simmons can void the final year of his contract, which he almost certainly will do, and Matt Hasselbeck is in line for a raise. With Houston coming into the league with a ton of cap money to spend, Simmons, Jones, and Springs at least will be targeted and the price of retaining these players will skyrocket. The Seahawks cannot afford to lose any of them if they are to remain competitive. Re-signing them will take an enormous investment that will likely leave the Seahawks with little cap room for a couple of years. Holmgren has selected players to be ready to fill the jobs, but that is no guarantee.

Overall, Holmgren's approach to the off season seemed designed to produce short term results in order to restore his reputation. Time will tell if his decision to ignore needs along the DL will be a stroke of genius, or folly.

-- SHB