Seahawk Boys 2006 Free Agency Preview

The Seahawks up and down season of inconsistency came to an abrupt halt in the Divisional round as they lost to a soft and overrated Bears team in overtime, 27-24. The fact that the team lost in OT on the road to the eventual NFC Super Bowl representative should not mask the fact that there are some holes to fill on a roster that also could lose some significant free agents. First, we will asses the Seahawks roster as it stands today and then review the team’s restricted and unrestricted free agents with an eye towards which ones the team should focus on re-signing between now and the start of the free agency signing period.

Fortunately, the Seahawks have $20 million under the cap to spend on free agency this year, so re-signing their key players shouldn’t be a problem. However, there may not be much left over to bring in new players.

This year NFL teams have four options in making one-year qualifying offers to restricted free agents. Each offer returns a certain level of compensation should a team choose not to match another team's offer. In each case, the dollar value represents what the player would earn in 2007 salary should he remain with the team that made the offer.

For example: If the Seahawks tendered DJ Hackett at the first-round level, they would have to pay him $1.85 million in base salary in 2007. First, Hackett would be able to solicit offers from other teams. If Denver (as an example) made an offer, the Seahawks could keep Hackett by matching the offer. If the Seahawks decided against matching the offer, Hackett would become a member of the Broncos, but the Seahawks would receive Denver's first-round pick in 2007.

Unrestricted free agents can of course sign with any team at any time once the signing period begins in early March. The Franchise Tag numbers for 2007 are as follows;

Franchise Tag Numbers
Position	2007 franchise charge	Change from 2006
QB	$12.615 million	+43.5%
OL	$9.556 million	+36.8%
DE	$8.664 million	+3.7%
CB	$7.790 million	+32.2%
WR	$7.613 million	+23.3%
LB	$7.206 million	+0.5%
RB	$6.999 million	+15.0%
DT	$6.775 million	+19.8%
S	$4.490 million	+9.3%
TE	$4.371 million	+31.2%
P/K	$2.078 million	-15.8%

The Seahawks offense sputtered at times with the widespread injuries that plagued the team. The receiving corps and OL were disappointments and the entire unit struggled to maintain any kind of consistency in the face of all the injuries. The team’s biggest offensive needs are an upgrade at fullback to help the running game and at least two tight ends since Jerramy Stevens can void his deal and become a free agent.

Quarterbacks – Matt Hasselbeck came off a career best season in 2005 and proceeded to regress to 2002 performance levels. Hasselbeck struggled to gain any kind of consistency in the face of some poor pass protection and had his most scatter-armed season since 2002. He missed open receivers, panicked in the face of pressure and made some horrendous decisions which resulted in a career high 15 interceptions against only 18 TD’s. He missed four games with a badly sprained knee and suffered cracked ribs, broken fingers and shoulder problems as well. Still, all of the bad throws and bad sacks cannot be attributed to the injuries, and Coach Mike Holmgren indicated his patience is wearing thin with Hasselbeck’s frequently poor judgment. Bringing in a new QB is not out of the question, although it is unlikely. Back-up remains problematic, with Seneca Wallace having more value as a receiver-kick returner than as a back-up QB. He was unimpressive in his four regular season starts. David Greene remained invisible in his second season with the team and has a long way to go to be an NFL #2, much less a starter. Greene needs to make dramatic progress or he may become a wasted first day draft pick.

Offensive Line – Perennial Pro Bowl LT Walter Jones will continue to anchor this unit. Jones had a sub par season while being forced to play at about 85% efficiency due to a nagging ankle injury. There is no reason to think that Jones won’t return to form with the off-season to get his ankle healed. Rookie Rob Sims stepped into the LG spot vacated by Steve Hutchinson (free agency) and Pork Chop Womack (injury). Sims made some mistakes, but generally played very well for a 4^th round pick and should be a solid starter for years to come. All that remains is for he and Jones to get comfortable playing next to each other. Second year man Chris Spencer stepped into the void at center and played very well. Spencer possesses off the scale physical skills and should be the starter in the middle for the next decade. On the right side, veteran Chris Gray is an unrestricted free agent but will likely resign with the team. However, his skills are fading and the team needs to find a long term solution at the RG spot. RT Sean Locklear is a restricted free agent, and the Seahawks will need to resign him to avoid creating a major headache on the line. Veteran G\T Tom Ashworth struggled at LT but played well subbing for Locklear at RT and may be able to play some guard if Gray departs or retires. OT Ray Willis has yet to see the field in two years and may be shaping up as a bust.

Running Backs – MVP RB Shaun Alexander struggled early on and then missed six games with a broken bone in his foot before returning to top form at the end of the year. Back-up Mo Morris was adequate subbing for Alexander but the running game really suffered with him in the starting line-up and it’s clear that Holmgren overvalues him. He’s nothing more than a change-up back. Veteran FB Mack Strong dropped off dramatically, as age and injuries took their toll. The team needs to find a replacement sooner rather than later. Leonard Weaver is a power back who might also be able to step in at HB, but he spent the season on IR after an ill-advised roster move by GM Tim Ruskell. He might have made a real difference subbing for Alexander. Josh Scoby is a kick returner and nothing more. Rookie FB David Kirtman did nothing after being signed off the practice squad.

Wide Receivers - Unless Darrel Jackson’s knee flares up again, the Seahawks are pretty well set at wide receiver. Jackson will be #1 and newly acquired WR Deon Branch will be #2. When healthy, the pair will be as good as any in the league. Jackson does have some issues with drops, but replacing his 10 TD’s in the Seahawks system would be a tall task. Branch was wildly inconsistent after coming over in a trade from the Patriots, but an off-season in the Seahawks system should smooth out his performance curve. Nate Burleson was a disappointment as a receiver while playing with a broken thumb but he came up big as a kick and punt returner later in the year. Expect better things in the passing game from him next year. Bobby Engram is an unrestricted free agent but still productive. DJ Hackett is an emerging talent but has a hard time staying healthy.

Tight Ends – Veteran Jerramy Stevens struggled to regain top form and had some drops and fumbles, but he came up big late in the year. Veteran TE Will Heller was adequate subbing for Mack Strong at FB but is only a mediocre tight end. Benny Joppru was signed late in the year and contributed on special teams. Veteran Itula Mili was released after another injury plagued year.

The defense sagged under the weight of injuries to key players and mental breakdowns in the secondary due to the loss of SS Marquand Manuel. The defense played well when it was healthy early in the year, but got worse as the year wore on. Defensively, the Seahawks biggest needs are to get Marcus Tubbs healthy, add a second run-stuffing DT to back him up, and get some smarter players in the deep secondary, especially at free safety.

Defensive Line – The Seahawks really missed DT Marcus Tubbs when he went out for the season in week six. Tubbs is the key to the Seahawks run defense, which gives up 137 YPG without him and only 100 with him. Keeping
Tubbs healthy and finding another run-stuffing backstop to spell him will be key to the team’s run defense in 2007. Undersized Chuck Darby is a high-character guy, but made fewer plays than last year. Rocky Bernard cashed in on a five-year free agency deal and then saw his sacks drop from 9.5 to only 4. Veteran Russell Davis struggled with nagging injuries, but played well when healthy. High motor youngster Craig Terrill was lost to IR.

At DE, Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher both dropped off in production from 2005. Wistrom is four years into his big free agent contract, but it would cost the team more to cut him than keep him, so expect to see him back in a Seahawks uniform next year. Rookie speed pass rusher Darryl Tapp had three sacks and an interception return for a TD, but is undersized and may be better suited as an outside linebacker in a 3-4. Veteran journeyman Joe Tafoya rounds out the roster.

Linebackers – Thanks to the big money signing of former 49’ers OLB Julian Petersen, this is the team’s strongest unit. Petersen registered 10 sacks (although only two came after mid-season) and was a player that teams had to account for at all times. Sophomore LB’s Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill both added weight in the off-season and it seemed to negatively affect their play, even though Tatupu still made the Pro Bowl. Both players were probably impacted by the loss of Tubbs up front. Depth is provided by veterans Niko Koutouvides and Kevin Bentley, and rookies Marquis Cooper and Lance Laury. Of that group, only Bentley is a keeper. Oft injured DD. Lewis is probably done.

Secondary – This unit remains a problem. When he was healthy, CB Marcus Trufant was pretty decent as a cover corner. Rookie Kelly Jennings stepped in for the playoffs and played very well. This pair looks like the Seahawks starters for years to come. Nickel back Kelly Herndon had his best season as a pro only to see it squandered when he and Jimmy Williams were both injured in a meaningless season finale at Tampa Bay. Their availability for training camp is questionable. Street free agent Pete Hunter had a couple of good performances and may have a shot at making the team next year.

The Seahawks biggest problems were at safety, where Michael Boulware got continually burned in coverage and seemed to regress as the year wore on. He seems unable to shake his linebacker instincts may be better suited as an OLB in 3-4 scheme. Jordan Babineaux stepped in when Boulware was benched, but he was so soft against the run that teams didn’t have to bother testing him deep. FS Ken Hamlin recovered from a skull fracture suffered in a bar fight, but he seemed more interested in delivering big hits after the catch than wrapping up and making tackles. Mike Green was injured in pre-season, but the Seahawks have high-hopes he’ll make a comeback from the dreaded “lisfranc” foot injury and be the smart, deep cover free safety they desperately need.

Special Teams – Kicker Josh Brown, punter Ryan Plackemier and long snapper Derek Rackley all were excellent in their roles.

Now that we’ve looked over the roster, let’s assess the Seahawks group of free agents and make some judgments about who should be resigned.

These are the guys that the Seahawks really can’t afford to lose, players whose departure would create a hole big enough to justify spending a draft pick or significant cap space to fill. They should make all efforts to keep these guys from hitting the open market.

TE Jerramy Stevens – Despite his inconsistency, Stevens remains a special receiving talent whom the Seahawks cannot afford to lose. Quite simply, the Seahawks would not have beaten the Cowboys without him and he creates mismatches down the seam that few TE’s can match. The offense would (and did) sputter without him.

K Josh Brown – Brown is clutch, pure and simple. Even top paid kickers make very small salaries, so paying Brown what the best kickers are making should not be a problem with the cap space the Seahawks have.

WR Bobby Engram – Engram showed that despite his age and a battle with a thyroid problem, he’s still a productive and reliable player. It may come down to a choice between Engram and DJ Hackett in the end.

RT Sean Locklear – Locklear has stepped in and solidified a RT that was a revolving door for years. Despite his one brush with the law, he seems to be worth an investment of a long term deal.

WR D.J. Hackett - Hackett has the potential to be a starting receiver for some team, but is invaluable to the Seahawks as a back-up. He has some trouble staying healthy, but provides a deep threat when he’s in the game and is much younger than Bobby Engram.

These players are ones it would be nice to have back – and who would be smart to re-sign with the team with which they found a nice fit.

S Ken Hamlin – The Seahawks obviously need to get better at the Safety position, but Hamlin was the best the team had last year. He’s a big hitter and hasn’t lost any aggressiveness despite a life threatening skull fracture last year.

OG Chris Gray – Gray got overwhelmed at times, but still has value as a back-up C and OG if he chooses to play a few more years.

OG Floyd Womack – Can’t stay healthy, but invaluable as a spot substitute all along the OL.

CB Jimmy Williams – Coming off knee surgery, nobody else will touch him anyway.

CB Pete Hunter – Showed some promise in the post season. Deserves a chance to come to camp.

DT Craig Terrill – High motor guy who is good to have around the locker room.

These are guys who don’t merit more than a minimum salary contract, either because of age, injury history, lack of talent or all three. If they don’t take the offer, let ‘em walk!

KR-RB Josh Scobey; FB Josh Parry; DE Joe Tafoya; LB D.D. Lewis; LS J.P. Darche; LS Derek Rackley; DE Kemp Rasmussen; LB Lance Laury; LB Niko Koutouvides; S Oliver Celestin. Note: LS Derrick Rackley has signed a one year deal with the Seahawks.

After shoring up their own roster, the Seahawks can start contemplating some players from other teams to fill some holes before the draft. These are our favorite guys out there:

DT Terdell Sands Raiders – Sands is a massive (6-7, 335) run stuffer who clogs up the middle of the line better than an 80 pound turd. He gives good effort and would be an excellent fit in a rotation with the more athletically gifted Tubbs.

DT Hollis Thomas Saints – Thomas would be the ideal fit for the Seahawks problems against the run. He’s quick, tough and durable. The one question mark is his suspension for violating the substance policy. Still, at 33, he might be worth the risk Since he has been rarely hurt in his career.

DE Justin Smith, Bengals – Smith is a relentless, athletic pass rusher, very similar to Grant Wistrom in his prime. The difference Smith has more left in the tank. Probably will be franchised by the Bengals. Late note: Smith has been franchised by the Bengals and will probably remain with the team.

QB Matt Schaub, Falcons – Would give the Seahawks the smart, veteran back-up they need behind Hasselbeck and allow them to move Wallace into WR\KR\Slash role. Shaub’s familiarity with the West Coast offense and new Assistant head coach Jim Mora make him a natural heir apparent to Matt Hasselbeck.

TE Daniel Graham, Patriots – It’s doubtful he’ll ever make it to free agency, but if he does, Graham would give the Seahawks a terrific one-two punch at the TE spot. He’s not the receiver Stevens is, but he’s solid enough and an excellent run blocker. Late note: The Patriots have placed the franchise tag on CB Assante Samuel, so unless they can come to an agreement on a multi-year deal by Thursday, Graham will become a free agent.

OG's Kris Dielman (Chargers) or Eric Steinbach (Bengals) - Late word is that the Seahawks are focusing early on San Diego's Dielman. Dielman is a true LG and would give the Seahawks an instant starter to finally fill the Steve Hutchinson hole. He's bigger and stronger than Stienbach and has more upside. Both are only 26 and entering their prime. Second year G Rob Sims could then move to the less critical right side alongside RT Sean Locklear. Rumors are that Dielman wants "Hutch money," but if that is the case, why not go for the more refined product in Steinbach?

With $20 million in cap space, the Seahawks have some room to make moves in free agency. SHB’s strategy would look like this.

Step 1 – Resign\Franchise Jerramy Stevens – With the franchise price for tight ends only $4.371 million dollars, the Seahawks can re-sign Stevens to a long term deal or simply tag him for one more year while they add depth to the position. This leaves the cap at $15.629 million.

Step 2 – Sign Josh Brown – Brown can certainly be had for a deal that averages $2.2 million or less. We’ll assume the former and that leaves the cap at $13.551 million.

Step 3 – Sign Sean Locklear – If the Seahawks are smart, they’ll tender Locklear at the first and third round levels while they work out a long term deal. There are lots of teams who would give up a first round pick for a sold starting RT, even one with a little baggage. Tendering him at the top level probably makes him safe from pilfering by other teams. This leaves the cap at $11.201 million.

Step 4 – Tender DJ Hackett at the 1st round level – Unless Engram had already resigned, the team needs Hackett for depth and youth. Tendering him at the first round level gives the Seahawks a chance to get back the pick they lost in the Deon Branch deal, or keep Hackett for one more year at a reasonable ($1.85 million) salary. The cap now stands at 9.351 million.

Step 5 – Throw the bank at Terdell Sands – Sands may be one dimensional, but he’s special in exactly the dimension the Seahawks care the most about – width. Adding Sands to the rotation with Tubbs would make it much harder to run on the Seahawks. Cost; probably a five year deal in the $4-4.5 million range.

Step 6 – Sign Matt Schaub – It should be obvious by now that Jim Mora Jr., unless he bolts for the Bolts job, will be the next head coach of the Seahawks. Whether it’s in 2008 (after another Super Bowl run) or 2009 (after Holmgren’s contract expires) Mora will be running the show soon enough. He’ll need and want “his” guy at QB, and Matt Hasselbeck will be pushing 34 by then. Hasselbeck is already showing signs of wear and tear, and it’s not even certain he’ll be healthy for training camp. Seneca Wallace isn’t the answer, and David Green looks lost in the offense, even after two seasons. Schaub would give Mora a guy he knows, presumably likes, and who knows the west coast offense inside and out. He’s a perfect fit for the Seahawks QB of the future, and perhaps his presence will light a fire under the suddenly mistake prone Hasselbeck. As a restricted free agent, he’d cost the Seahawks a 2007 third round pick as well as a 2008 first, but to get your QB for the next 5-10 years, that’s a small price to pay. He’d have to be convinced he’d get a shot to start, but why not? It’s not like Hasselbeck did anything this year to secure a bust in Canton.

Obviously, making all these moves could be pricey, but the Seahawks would not only secure a shot the Super Bowl this year, they’d be set up to stay competitive into the future. It’s also likely they’ll follow a different path, choosing to spend less on second tier guys in the hopes they’ll be able underpay for over performance. Still, we think it’s time to do something drastic in the hopes of waking up a team that seemed to cruise through too many games last year.

Probable Seahawks strategy: From rumors making the rounds of various talk shows and web sites, it looks like the Seahawks will take a different path than that recommended by SHB.

Assuming they lock down Josh Brown before Thursday, it looks like the Seahawks top priority is to solidify the LG position with either Dielman or Steinbach. This will allow Rob Sims to slide to RG. Next, they seem intent on dumping Stevens for Graham, and then adding TE depth by going after San Francisco's productive Eric Johnson. Doing this will mean they give up Stevens special downfield speed for Graham's consistency. They could also sign Brown, franchise tag Stevens, then go after Graham and Dielman. Once they get Graham, they can rescind the tag on Stevens (unless he has already signed the guaranteed tender). Also, don't be surprised if the Seahawks tender either DJ Hackett or Locklear at the second round level, or even both, in the hopes of picking up additional first day picks. If they are able to re-sign Engram, they would be left with Darrell Jackson, Nate Burleson, Deon Branch, Engram and either Ben Obomanu or another rookie at WR. Exposing Hackett might bring a 2nd round pick that could allow the team to fill another need area. Exposing Locklear would of course only make sense if the Seahawks know something about Ray Wilis that the rest of us don't.