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Seattle Seahawks
Preliminary 2002 Draft Preview
Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is sacked in a November loss at Kansas City. Hasselbeck was a major disappointment after coming over from Green Bay in an April trade.Now that the dust has settled from the 17 weeks of the 2001 season, we've had more than enough time to consider the good and the bad about the 2001 edition of the Seattle Seahawks and make some early evaluations of next years draft needs.
Curiously, the main needs don't seem to be all that much different from last year at this time. The Seahawks still need a young stud or two along the defensive line, a quarterback that can consistently deliver the ball downfield, and a receiver that can break the occasional big play. They also lack a corner to play alongside Shawn Springs and a safety that can make an impact in run support and coverage. Depth at middle linebacker and running back is a concern.
2001 Season Review - The Seahawks 9-7 regular season record is deceptive. They only played three playoff teams (the Raiders, Eagles and Dolphins) won only one of those four games, and their two worst defeats of the season were against the Raiders and Eagles. In addition, all seven of the Seahawks defeats came with likely 2002 starter Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, not a good sign since major domo Mike Holmgren has made it clear that Trent Dilfer will not be back if he has his way.
The team averaged only 16 points per game offensively with Hasselbeck at QB (compared with 26 ppg in the four games Dilfer started), and only 7 touchdown passes in 12 games. Dilfer had 7 touchdown passes in only four starts and a couple of relief appearances.
The defense, restocked with older veterans in the off-season, started out strong (4th overall in league at one point) but faded as the year went on (finished 20th) and gave up way too many passing yards (3,733, 23rd in the league). In addition, Seahawks defensive backs allowed opposing QB's to complete an astounding 60.2 % of their passes (22nd in the league). Teams threw at the Seahawks 563 times, the third most in the league, which is an indication they felt comfortable moving the ball that way against the defense. The Seahawks were better against the run, finishing 15th in the league and giving up a respectable 107 yards per game and nine TD's.
The special teams were generally (and uncharacteristically) awful, giving up a couple blocked punts, punt returns for TD's and getting burned on a fake field goal. They also helped on a couple occasions, scoring on a blocked punt, and Charlie Rogers kick-off return in the final moments of the second San Diego game set up the game winning field goal.
The coaching was generally lousy, as more often then not, the Seahawks got out-maneuvered in the half time adjustments. There were also the aforementioned special teams breakdowns, numerous clock management gaffes, and the curious tendency to lose track of down, distance and score. The low point probably came when Mike Holmgren elected to kick a field goal on fourth down in the final two minutes of the Dolphins game. The Seahawks were down by four points at the time.
On the defensive side of the ball, Steve Sidwell failed to take advantage of the talents of players like Anthony Simmons. It is easy to see him getting double digit sack totals in a scheme that had him attack the QB more often. And all-too-often we were treated to the sight of 300 lb. MLB Levon Kirkland covering receivers on third and long.
Going into a new division (NFC West) that features three teams with potent passing attacks (Rams, 49ers and Cardinals), the Seahawks will need a major upgrade in the pass rush and in the secondary to be competitive. It is hard to imagine them winning more than two games against these three teams, and 1-5 or even 0-6 is more likely unless there are some drastic defensive upgrades.
And that task will be made harder by the number of valuable unrestricted free agents the team has. Let's look at that group:
Free Agents - Before they can look at how to play the draft, the Seahawks must first address a number of valuable players who are eligible for unrestricted free agency. According to CNN/SI, the Seahawks are projected to be some $9.3 million under the salary cap for 2002, but this figure seems high to me. Whatever the situation, given the list of players they could lose, resigning players, rather than adding new players from other teams, should be the preeminent concern. Here's the latest list, in order of how I would prioritize resigning them:
Trent Dilfer - QB - The teams best QB. Too bad he won't be here next season.
Walter Jones - LT - Sign him now. Losing him would be a disaster.
Antonio Cochran-DE - Two words: "Phillip Daniels."
Mack Strong - FB - Heath Evans makes him look even better than he is.
Tim Terry - LB - Big play LB. Bring him back please.
Bobby Engram - WR - Sign him or find someone just like him, but please let him play?
Todd Weiner - RT - "Now starting at right tackle for your Houston Texans, Todd Weiner!"
Itula Mili-TE and Christian Fauria-TE - Better than nothing.
Other 2002 Free Agents- (Practice Squad) Joe Brown-DT, Bruce Wiggins-OL, Rodnick Phillips-RB, Shawn Forte-S, Kerwin Cook-WR (Exclusive Rights) Rian Lindell-P/K, Maurice Kelly-S (Restricted) Paul Miranda-CB, Floyd Wedderburn-OL, Brock Huard-QB, John "Charlie" Rogers-RB (Unrestricted), Ricky Watters-RB
ROSTER ASSESSMENT
OFFENSE
The Seahawks offense was very unproductive this season when in the hands of 4th year QB Matt Hasselbeck. Early problems with complicated blocking schemes and poor receiver play were exacerbated by Hasselbeck's deficiencies. It wasn't until week four that head coach Mike Holmgren got smart and simplified the blocking schemes and emphasized the run over the pass. But, this did little to ignite the passing game as even when he had time, Hasselbeck was limited by his own lack of accuracy and Holmgren's lack of confidence in his playmaking abilities. Holmgren could have made things much easier by playing veterans Bobby Engram and Trent Dilfer, but he refused to do so and the team subsequently squandered several winnable games. With Engram and Dilfer UFA's, things are unlikely to improve next season without a change in personnel.
QUARTERBACKS: The Seahawks QB situation is a shambles. The team is stuck with Hasselbeck, who looks like anything but the "real deal", and the other two QB's are free agents, although the Seahawks have Brock Huard's exclusive rights. The almost certain loss of Dilfer, the questions about Huard's durability and the lack of progress by Hasselbeck make this a need area.
Trent Dilfer - Status (UFA) - Dilfer is the Seahawks best QB, a savvy, smart playmaker with a rocket arm. He should be starting for the team right now, but isn't and will probably be gone unless Holmgren assures him he has a chance to win the starting job next season. Dilfer will start for someone next year, but it almost certainly won't be in Seattle. Did I mention he is also a Super Bowl champion?
Brock Huard - Status (RFA) - Huard is the Seahawks second best QB, but has huge questions around him. It is still unknown if he has the durability to play in the NFL full time, and his mechanics are still bad, but he has a big time arm and a great touch on the deep ball.
Matt Hasselbeck - Status (signed) - The jokes about "Matt Mirer" and "Rick Hasselbeck" are familiar and unfortunately, appropriate. Like that other well known bust from the last decade, Hasselbeck has good mobility, an average arm, and precious little accuracy, especially on the deep ball. Shifting defenses confuse him, and he makes poor decisions under pressure, holding the ball when he should dump it, and scrambling when he should stand tall, take a hit and deliver the ball. Unless Hasselbeck blows out a knee, he will probably be the Seahawks starter next year as the inadvisable contract Holmgren gave him (basically sight unseen) makes him impossible to trade. The Seahawks, to their detriment, are stuck with him.
RUNNING BACKS - Free agency could gut the depth here. If Watters and Strong go, Evans and Graham are hardly ready to step in. A back-up RB with speed is a possible first day priority for the Seahawks. Too bad they passed on Miami's Travis Minor in last years draft to take Evans. FB's are easier to find.
Shaun Alexander - Status (signed) - Alexander stepped in when future hall-of-famer Ricky Watters went down and showed he is a coming star. Alexander led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (14) and has over 1,000 yards in spite of the fact that Watters started 4 games. Alexander has a Marcus Allen-like ability to avoid big hits and slip away from tacklers. He needs work catching the ball and blocking in max-protect, but he has a bright future as a runner. Did a better job protecting the ball in the second half of the season.
Ricky Watters - Status (UFA) Watters is as good as gone, which is a shame because he would be the perfect third down back in the Seahawks scheme. However, Watters still wants to be "the man," and it is doubtful he would accept a part time role. Still, he's a 32 year old RB coming off an injury plagued season, and he may find the market thinner than he expects. We may yet see Watters back in a Seahawks uniform next year. Let's hope. Cleveland has emerged as a possible destination.
Mack Strong - Status (UFA) - Strong is now widely regarded as the best blocking fullback in the league and is given a huge chunk of credit for the Seahawks strong running game. With 3rd rounder FB Heath Evans looking like a bust so far, retaining Strong is important.
The Rest - 3rd round pick FB Heath Evans has been a major disappointment, being relegated to a special teams role. It's too early to call him a bust but he is nowhere near ready to step in for Strong. Jay Graham is a journeyman backup, and Charlie Rogers is strictly a kick returner, and a boom-or-bust, UFA KR at that.
WIDE RECEIVERS - This is a group that looked very average, with no real impact players but some potential, until Trent Dilfer stepped in as starter late in the season. None of these players overly concerns defensive game planners, and that must change. Jackson looked strong in the late season games. The unit's best player, Engram, is underutilized which hampers the overall passing game. Koren Robinson had disciplinary problems late in the season and that should set off alarm bells. He can't be counted on. An upgrade is needed here and the Seahawks should not pass up a big time talent if one slips to them in round one.
Darrel Jackson - Status (signed) - In his rookie season, Jackson led all first year players in receptions and yards, and has followed it up with a solid sophomore campaign. Better suited to a #2 or #3 role, Jackson has carried the #1 role well, despite inconsistent hands. He's the teams only real big play threat at WR, but it is not like he's a speed demon. He's just adequate.
Bobby Engram - Status (UFA) - Engram has been "Mr. 3rd Down" for the Seahawks, with something like 70% of Engram's 25 catches being for first down yardage on 3rd down. He has out played first-rounder Koren Robinson and really should be starting alongside Darrel Jackson. If the Seahawks don't resign him they'll need to go get a player just like him anyway.
Koren Robinson - Status (signed) - Robinson has been a major disappointment in his rookie season, lacking deep speed and overall production. 39 receptions for 536 yards are hardly what the Seahawks had in mind when they spent the #9 overall pick in last years draft on him, but the upside is that he is still young and has shown signs of getting open more frequently in recent games. Broke a couple long plays in the last two games. He was hampered by a bad hamstring injury which slowed his progress in training camp and may have led to some of his problems. Coaches still believe (hope?) he can emerge as an Issac Bruce/Chris Chambers type of deep threat, but so far, he has played more like a third round possession talent. He has only three receptions longer than 22 yards, but they came in a cluster late in the year.
Alex Bannister - Status (signed) - Bannister (5th round pick in 2001) has only four receptions, but he has great size (6'5"), speed and excellent hands to go with a great work ethic. He is a playmaker on special teams (one blocked punt), and has all the tools to be an impact player at WR in the coming years. A definite keeper.
The Rest - James Williams is in his second year but has yet to make an impression. Training camp is probably his last shot to stick with the team. (Late Note: Williams had a breakout game in week 16 against the Chargers, catching five balls for 114 yards and a 37 yard TD that showed great run after-the-catch). Fabien Bowens is a special teams standout.
TIGHT ENDS - The Seahawks will need at least one TE from this draft.
Christian Fauria and Itula Milli- Status (UFA) - Both of the Seahawks top two TE's are free to go, and the Seahawks will likely have to chose between the brittle Fauria and the more talented Milli. Neither is great, but both are adequate and the Seahawks cannot afford to lose both. Fauria and Milli are almost interchangeable, with Fauria the better blocker but Milli the better receiver. Fauria has been the starter, but the two players are so even that it may come down to who will take the least money to stay. 3rd stringer Russell Stewart is an unknown quantity.
OFFENSIVE LINE - A talented yet inconsistent group that struggled early on. The possible loss of Weiner and especially Jones could be a big problem for this unit, so it is critical that Jones at least be retained. Likely to be a better group next year as there is youth and talent here.
Walter Jones - LT - Status (UFA) - Jones is not an elite LT, but he is just below that level and given how hard it is to find a good one, Jones is and should be priority one. With the Texans coming into the league with a ton of cap space, the Seahawks would be wise to get this contract done now, rather than waiting.
Steve Hutchinson - LG - Status (signed) - Hutchinson is a very promising player who came on strong as a rookie and won almost universal praise. He likely will not make the Pro Bowl but most observers suspect he will start making regular trips to Hawaii soon.
Robbie Tobeck - C - Status (signed) - Tobeck is the perfect center. You never notice him, which means he must be doing his job.
Chris Gray - RG - Status (signed) - Gray is a solid technician who sometimes gets overwhelmed at the point of attack. Probably better suited to center and would be better off in a backup role there.
Todd Weiner - RT - Status (UFA) - Weiner has proven he is capable of starting and playing well, and that is a lot more than can be said for Chris McIntosh or Floyd Wedderburn, his primary competition. Given the inconsistency of the players behind him, resigning Weiner would be a seem to be a no-brainer, but Holmgren has shown little inclination in the past for retaining players brought here by Dennis Erickson and Randy Mueller.
The Rest - 2000 first round bust Chris McIntosh will likely get another shot at RT next year, since it is doubtful that Mike Holmgren will retain Weiner and the team has a first round pick invested in McIntosh. That does not mean he can play. Third year man Floyd Wedderburn was a camp disappointment and lost his RG spot to Gray, but he can play and should be back. 2001 4th round pick Floyd "Pork Chop" Womack and 7th rounder Dennis Norman intrigue the coaching staff and may move up the depth chart next year. Bruce Wiggins is a developmental player at center who may be able to move off the practice squad to the regular roster next year.
DEFENSE
Restocked with veterans, the Seahawks defense started out strong but has faded as injuries and age have taken their toll. The inability of the offense to move the ball and score points -- especially in the second half of games -- has worn down this unit. The numbers would probably look better if the offense had been at least decent. Newcomers John Randle and Chad Eaton have been great, Levon Kirkland has been OK, but Marcus Robertson has been a disappointment. The defensive line needs an infusion of youth and the secondary needs some playmakers.
DEFENSIVE LINE - The Seahawks have two solid DT's in John Randle and Chad Eaton, one promising youngster in Antonio Cochran, and a 300 lb first round disappointment in Lamar King. Beyond that, there is little speed, depth or talent, and a major upgrade is needed here.
John Randle - DT - Status (signed) - Randle is the Seahawks best defensive lineman, even at 33 and on the downside of his career, which should tell you something. Still tough, cat-quick and relentless, Randle remains a playmaker in a unit bereft of them. He needs to be spelled more often to keep him fresh, which is a good reason to consider drafting a DT #1 this year. Still plenty of gas left in this tank.
Chad Eaton - DT - Status (signed) - Eaton and Randle make a good team. Eaton is a bit bigger and stronger, and excellent against the run. Randle is obviously the best pass rusher but the pair compliment each other nicely. Eaton is somewhat undersized by NFL standards but generally holds up well and makes plays with his inside quickness.
Lamar King - DE - Status (signed) - King has been something of a bust since being drafted in the first round by Holmgren in 1999. His only solid season was in 2000, when he recorded 43 tackles and 6 sacks, but he has struggled this year. Injuries have held him out of a lot of games, but he was mostly invisible in the games he did play. Lacks the speed and quickness that edge players need to get to the QB. Might be better suited to DT, where he could rotate with Randle and Eaton. Must step up and contribute next year if he's to resurrect his career.
Antonio Cochran - DE - Status (RFA) - Overmatched at DT, where he was drafted in 1999, Cochran has shown flashes this year when allowed to play DE. Cochran does much better in space where his quick first step allows him to get leverage and make a second move. He had 31 tackles, 4.5 sacks and a couple of forced fumbles in very limited action. The Seahawks should be looking at him as a DE starter next year and not allow him to get away.
Michael Sinclair - DE - Status (signed) - Sinclair continued his steady decline since signing a huge contract in 1999, to the point he has dropped off the map. Likely cap casualty.
The Rest - Cedric Woodard is big and strong, but not productive. Matt Labounty came back late in the season and promptly got injured. His career is likely over. John Hilliard has had several starts but has made nothing out of it.
LINEBACKERS - The best overall unit on the defense is led by speedy OLB's Chad Brown and Anthony Simmons and run stuffer Levon Kirkland. If Simmons or Brown were to go down the Seahawks have some quality depth in Marcus Bell and Tim Terry, if he re-signs. Depth at MLB is more of a problem, were Isaiah Kascevenski has been strictly a special teams player.
Chad Brown - OLB - Status (signed) - Brown is playmaking machine, whether he is running around blockers or attacking QB's. Brown is better going forward than dropping back in pass coverage, and it would be nice to see the defensive coordinator find ways for him to just attack plays and not worry about coverage. Brown has benefited from being a DE in passing situations this year (7.5 sacks), and maybe it is time to consider switching him to DE full time, instead of drafting a college DE who's not going to be as good a player. Brown is light, but Derrick Thomas played well in the same kind of role in KC and Peter Boulware is looking great doing this in Baltimore. Maybe he could bulk up 10 pounds or so and make the switch.
Anthony Simmons - OLB - Status (signed) - Seahawks are lucky Simmons is not a UFA this year, because it would likely take a huge contract to keep him from the Texans. Simmons is now being recognized around the league as a big-time playmaker, and deservedly so. There are few faster LB's in the league. He's terrific attacking the passer (which he needs to be allowed to do more of) and equally skilled in coverage. Simmons is the complete package, a true tackling machine, and a cornerstone for the defense.
Levon Kirkland - MLB - Status (signed) - At 285 pounds, Kirkland is basically a stand-up defensive lineman. Still very effective at stuffing the run, Kirkland is the main reason that the Seahawks have improved from dead last to 15th in the league against the run. A liability in coverage, Kirkland is only a 2 down player at this stage of his career, which makes you wonder why Steve Sidwell uses him in coverage so often.
Tim Terry - OLB - Status (RFA) - Whether he is plastering a returner on a punt, forcing a fumble in coverage or blowing up a screen pass with his quickness, Terry simply makes plays. When he is on the field, things happen, and he has shed his reputation as player who is slow to recognize and attack. Terry is a very quick, talented athlete, and the Seahawks need to find not only a way to retain him but get him on the field more.
Marcus Bell - OLB - Status (signed) - Strictly a special teams player in 2000, Bell is coming along nicely and making the most out of limited playing time. His 21 solo tackles and 1 sack are just a taste of what might come, as he seems to be developing better instincts for the game and is starting to make plays.
Isaiah Kacyvenski - ILB - Status (signed) - Kacyvenski is a straight line player who does not move well side to side, and as a result is pretty much a one dimensional run stuffer. A solid contributor in special teams but an emergency MLB only.
Orlando Huff - OLB - Status (signed) - Raw rookie has talent, but has yet to make an impact.
SECONDARY - The situation in the Seahawks defensive backfield is even more messed up than the QB position. The unit's best player, CB Shawn Springs, is coming off two straight inconsistent and injury plagued seasons which have seen him miss substantial chunks of time. The team has yet to find a partner to pair with him on the opposite side, despite a three year search. The Safety's continue to be almost invisible in the passing game. Going into the NFC West next season, which means facing the Rams, 49ers and Cardinals six times, this unit needs a major upgrade to avoid Armageddon.
Shawn Springs - CB - Status (signed) - Springs is the secondary's best player, but has suffered through two injury plagued seasons that have seen him drop off significantly from his Pro-Bowl level of 1998-99. When he's on, Springs is as good a cover corner as there is in the NFL, but he has been victimized frequently in the past two seasons as hamstring injuries have slowed him. He needs to get healthy and get his head back in the game.
Willie Williams - CB - Status (signed) - Williams has been healthy this year and has played well (4 interceptions) but his size remains a liability and he is better suited to the #3 CB spot. Until the Seahawks find someone better though, he will remain #2.
Ken Lucas - CB - Status (signed) - This years "solution" to the #2 CB job has been largely ineffective. Burned badly early on for TD's, Lucas has taken to playing cautiously and gives up too much room. Lucas has size and some physical skills, but remains unproductive. He has only one interception despite getting a lot of playing time and being thrown at constantly. May simply lack instincts for the game.
Paul Miranda - CB - Status (signed) - Former 4th round pick is small but has quick feet and speed. Needs to continue to work on techniques. May be able to step in for Williams in the future.
Ike Charlton - CB - Status (signed) - Charlton is looking like a lost cause, too stiff hipped to play corner, he does not change direction well and lacks closing speed. May be better suited to safety, where he can make reads and move more in a straight line.
Marcus Robinson - FS - Status (signed) - Started strong and then faded as age and injuries took their toll. Those who said he was on the decline and not a productive player any longer look prescient, at this point.
Reggie Tongue - SS - Status (signed) - Tongue, like Robertson, has been a major disappointment since signing as a free agent with Seattle in 2000. Tongue has talent, but seems lost in Steve Sidwell's system and just does not make plays. The Jacksonville game was his only real impact performance, and he has struggled to repeat it.
The Rest - Cutis Fuller and Harold Blackmon are back-up rookie safeties who are nothing to get excited about yet. Fuller showed flashes when pressed into service in the Buffalo game.
SPECIALISTS - Place Kicker Rian Lindell has been a model of inconsistency, blowing a lot of makeable kicks. Punter Jeff Feagles is one of the leagues best.
ASSESSMENT
In looking at the Seahawks roster, the most obvious problem is the QB situation, which we will address in a moment. The Seahawks are entering a new division next year (NFC West) and will be facing very potent passing attacks at least six times per year. They must address their weak pass defense in terms of both rush and coverage if they are to avoid finishing last in their division (assuming Hasselbeck is the QB). Here's how we evaluate the teams primary draft needs:
Quarterback - Given Hasselbeck's lack of progress, a developmental guy would be a good idea to take early on. If Dilfer somehow returns, QB is not a priority.
Speed Pass Rushing Defensive End: It is obvious to everyone that the Seahawks lack an edge pressure guy. Fourth year pro Antonio Cochran may solve some of the problem, but Lamar King is not a speed rusher and never will be.
Depth at Defensive Tackle: Behind Randle and Eaton, the Seahawks have no one who is capable of stepping in and being productive.
Safety - Assuming this position is not addressed in free agency, the Seahawks need a playmaking quarterback for their defensive secondary. The aging Marcus Robertson and the unproductive Reggie Tongue do not seem up to the task.
Running back - The team needs a backup to Alexander and a third down specialist.
Cornerback - Still looking for that one guy to bookend with Shawn Springs, the Seahawks should not pass on a quality CB if one drops to them.
Tight End - A pass catching TE would be a nice addition to the offense.
Wide Receiver - Koren Robinson has been a disappointment.
RECOMMENDED ROSTER MOVES
If we were in charge, we'd start by exposing Hasselbeck in the expansion draft and offering to sweeten the pot with a draft pick if the Texans took him off our hands. This would clear the cap space to make a big offer to Dilfer (4 years, $12 million [at least] with a $4 million SB) and keep the best QB this team has had in a decade. In our view, Hasselbeck is a lost cause. He will never have the smarts, savvy, leadership qualities, accuracy or arm strength that Dilfer possesses, so why prolong a failed experiment? At 29, Dilfer is just entering his prime. Letting him go will be a disaster. And even if the Texans are smart enough to refuse our attempt to dump Hasselbeck on them, we'd sign Dilfer anyway, in spite of the cap ramifications. This team simply cannot afford to let him get away.
Once that was settled, we'd turn our attention to the most important of our free agents. LT Walter Jones, DE Antonio Cochran, LB Tim Terry, and FB Mack Strong would get very generous offers well before they hit the open market in an attempt to stave off any chance of losing them. We'd also do our best to keep TE Itula Milli. If there is any money left over, we'd spend it on a veteran CB or Safety to try and stabilize the defensive backfield.
Next, we'd address the issue of a pass rushing DE. The Seahawks are likely to be picking somewhere in the 17-21 range of the draft, meaning that most of the edge rushers who can also play the run (like Julius Peppers and Kalimba Edwards) will be long gone. That leaves the Seahawks with an unpleasant choice; reach for one of a plethora of skinny 250 lb DE's who can only play on passing downs, or address a different need. One way to resolve this is to simply move Chad Brown to DE full time. Brown only weighs 240, but he could probably add another 10 lbs of muscle and not sacrifice his quickness. The Seahawks could then use him the same way that the Chiefs used Derrick Thomas late in his career or the way the Ravens are currently using Peter Boulware -- as a stand up DE. Why bother spending a draft pick on 250 lb DE when you've already got one on your roster? Tim Terry and Marcus Bell could then fight it out for Brown's old spot on the weakside.
This move solves several problems, not the least of which is freeing Brown up to do what he does best -- attack the ball. It also increases the depth along the defensive line, because Lamar King can move inside to spell Randle and Eaton and swing back to end to give offenses a different look. It also frees up the Seahawks to use their pick on the top player available instead of trying to fill a need.
If this is done, the Seahawks could be looking to add youthful depth to the defensive line with one of the second tier DT's like Washington's Larry Tripplett or Notre Dame's Anthony Weaver. Weaver is an intriguing prospect because he can play inside or out, creating even greater depth and flexibility along the defensive line.
Another option is for the Seahawks to take a player like Miami safety Edward Reed. Reed is a ball hawking playmaker with great hands for a DB, and he would really add something special to the deep middle of the Seahawks defense. There is a chance that Reed will be around when the Seahawks pick, but other teams are starting to notice him and unless he has a very bad combine or workout he's starting to look like a top ten player.
With Brown in the fold at DE the Seahawks could also elect to wait until round 2 to grab a project DL and spend their first pick on an offensive skill position player. Holmgren is said to be enamored with Colorado tight end Daniel Graham, And we'd love to see a deep threat like Javon Walker in a Seahawks uniform. Call it Koren Robinson insurance.
For that matter, if Holmgren does as we expect and sticks with Hasselbeck, we'd even advocate a first round QB like David Carr of Joey Harrington if they fell. May as well get started on replacing Hasselbeck now, since he's not ever going to be starting material.
So let's assume we are in charge and can shape this team the way we want. Dilfer is signed long term, Cochran, Jones, Terry and Strong are back in the fold. What does Seahawk Boy do on draft day? We have two first round scenarios, depending on the QB situation.
Round One - Obviously, it depends on who falls to our pick. But SHB's philosophy is that you must get impact players in round one. Players who make an immediate difference to your team. If Ed Reed is there, we grab him, but he's probably not. That leaves us a few choices. We love Anthony Weaver and Oklahoma safety Roy Williams is liked almost as well as Reed. But we can't resist. Concerns about Koren Robinson's speed would seem to be well justified based on his rookie year, and his suspension for chronic tardiness indicates he may lack the discipline and commitment to be a great player (where have we heard that before?). Florida State's Javon Walker is a spectacular talent, and you can never have enough WR's in the West Coast offense. If Reed is gone, we take Walker #1.
If Dilfer is let go, we advocate David Carr or Joey Harrington.
Round Two - Moving Brown and King around has allowed us the luxury of going offense with our first pick, but we can no longer neglect the defensive side of the ball. In round two we grab Mississippi State's Dorsett Davis to solidify the interior of our defensive line.
Round Three - Best available running back, with an emphasis on pass catching.
Round Four - Best available TE.
Round Five - Best available DB.
Round Six - Best available QB.
All this is, of course, widely speculative and somewhat dependant on Mike Holmgren coming to his senses and keeping Dilfer as the starter. We'll update this as the draft draws nearer.
BWWHD? (But What Will Holmgren Do?)
Next, we'll look at what Mike Holmgren is likely to do, based on his previous personnel moves, rather than focus on what he should do.
Far more committed to maintaining his status as an "offensive genius" who develops quarterbacks than he is to actually winning football games, Holmgren is likely to force Dilfer out by offering him a contract -- as a backup. This will allow him to use the now familiar "I wanted him back but he was just out of our price range", or "He wants a chance to start and we could not offer him that here" refrains he has used to justify letting (fill in the blank) get away for nothing.
Once he has run Dilfer out of town but made it appear that Dilfer just did not want to stay, Holmgren will turn his attention to protecting Hasselbeck as much as possible. In order to do this, he must find a way to place blame for his teams offensive deficiencies. He'll probably do this by taking an offensive player in round one, like the aforementioned TE Graham. In this way, he can deflect blame from Hasselbeck for his teams inept performances.
After that, he'll probably play rounds 2-5 by the numbers. DL-RB-DB. I doubt he'll take a QB because that will imply he does not have faith in Hasselbeck.
What Holmgren does about his QB situation this off-season will dictate not only what happens on the field next year, but likely for years to come. Facing a far tougher schedule next year, it is unlikely the Seahawks will be able to get to 8-8 unless they have a steady, talented hand at the QB position. Matt Hasselbeck is not it.
The Seahawks have enough talent to make a playoff run now, and one good draft could put them into contention, provided they have the right QB. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next months.
--SHB
